| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | W | San José State | 16-14 | 1240.6 | +68.0 | 1308.6 | 25.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Pittsburgh | 17-45 | 1308.6 | -21.9 | 1286.7 | 32.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Michigan | 3-63 | 1286.7 | -2.2 | 1284.5 | 3.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Wagner | 49-10 | 1284.5 | +0.0 | 1284.5 | 22.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Eastern Michigan | 24-13 | 1284.5 | +31.7 | 1316.2 | 55.0% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Akron | 22-28 | 1316.2 | -60.8 | 1255.4 | 77.5% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Bowling Green | 27-6 | 1255.4 | +65.9 | 1321.3 | 28.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 38-13 | 1321.3 | +25.7 | 1347.0 | 62.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Western Michigan | 21-24 | 1347.0 | -35.9 | 1311.1 | 50.1% |
| 13 | Nov 12 2025 | W | Buffalo | 38-19 | 1311.1 | +42.4 | 1353.5 | 42.3% |
| 14 | Nov 19 2025 | W | Kent State | 28-16 | 1353.5 | +25.0 | 1378.5 | 76.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Toledo | 3-21 | 1378.5 | -40.9 | 1337.6 | 40.3% |
| 19 | Dec 26 2025 | L | Northwestern | 7-34 | 1337.6 | -18.8 | 1318.8 | 22.1% |